2019 VA industry studies are coming

This year's VA industry studies of policyholder behavior (surrenders, partial withdrawals and income utilization, and GMIB annuitization) should be complete and delivered to purchasers in mid-June.

If you have not yet decided, we continue to see significant increases in exposures and credibility in key areas that are critical for assumption models:

Total exposure years: 85 million (+5.1% since last year)
GMIB (10yr) exposure years: +28.7%
GLWB in-the-money by 25% or more: +12.3%
GLWB income commencement exposure in years 11 or later: +94.5%

With all of this data in our studies, we can identify key factors of influence and interactions that are typically not evident at the individual company level, even for large blocks. Moreover, we can use this data to develop and calibrate customized behavioral models that are readily implementable with sensible factors of influence, strong goodness-of-fit, and dramatically improved predictive power in terms of A/E ratios. This is not a budget question, it is an investment in risk management with quantifiable benefits. You can check this out as part of our Premium service option.

Also, data gathering is in progress for new industry studies for payout annuities (incl. GMIB/GLWB post-annuitization, SPIA, and structured settlements, respectively), fixed deferred annuities, and the growing market of structured/indexed variable annuities.

Details and pricing are available upon request, including all of the above along with our 2019 FIA studies and triennial (2018) VA and FIA mortality studies. Please contact me with your purchase decisions or if a discussion would be helpful. We will be back in touch in a few weeks when the VA study results are available.

On behalf of our team, thanks for your ongoing support! Talk to you soon.

Tim

timothyparis@ruark.co

860.866.7786


Pictures of Super Models

Delighted to contribute this cover article to The Modeling Platform newsletter of the Society of Actuaries Modeling section.

And thanks to those of you who attended my presentation at session 08 of the Life & Annuity Symposium this week, which was in a similar vein.

Please contact me at timothyparis@ruark.co if you would like to learn more about how we use industry-level data and techniques like these to develop a cost-benefit equation for data, and quantifiably improve actuarial models and risk management.


See you at the SOA Life & Annuity Symposium!

I will be speaking at session 08 about policyholder behavior modeling and the risks of over-fitting data.  Hope to see you in sunny Florida!