Pictures of Super Models - SOA webcast

August 2, 2019

12:00 - 1:30pm Eastern

Register

I will be the presenter at this SOA webcast.  If you like me, Super Models, or continuing education credit, this is the webcast for you!

What is a "super model"? In this context, super models are developed based on rigorous data analytics techniques, and they provide a range of potential outcomes and financial metrics that can be used to evaluate when material changes are necessary. “Assumptions” can be extracted from super models for various applications, but the super model itself is more robust than that. It is a framework for analysis and risk management, not a point-in-time set of numbers.

This session will emphasize data visualization and communication of highly technical concepts to colleagues and non-actuarial stakeholders. There will be examples based on industry-level policyholder behavior data from the U.S. annuity market, but the concepts transcend product lines.


2019 VA industry studies are coming

This year's VA industry studies of policyholder behavior (surrenders, partial withdrawals and income utilization, and GMIB annuitization) should be complete and delivered to purchasers in mid-June.

If you have not yet decided, we continue to see significant increases in exposures and credibility in key areas that are critical for assumption models:

Total exposure years: 85 million (+5.1% since last year)
GMIB (10yr) exposure years: +28.7%
GLWB in-the-money by 25% or more: +12.3%
GLWB income commencement exposure in years 11 or later: +94.5%

With all of this data in our studies, we can identify key factors of influence and interactions that are typically not evident at the individual company level, even for large blocks. Moreover, we can use this data to develop and calibrate customized behavioral models that are readily implementable with sensible factors of influence, strong goodness-of-fit, and dramatically improved predictive power in terms of A/E ratios. This is not a budget question, it is an investment in risk management with quantifiable benefits. You can check this out as part of our Premium service option.

Also, data gathering is in progress for new industry studies for payout annuities (incl. GMIB/GLWB post-annuitization, SPIA, and structured settlements, respectively), fixed deferred annuities, and the growing market of structured/indexed variable annuities.

Details and pricing are available upon request, including all of the above along with our 2019 FIA studies and triennial (2018) VA and FIA mortality studies. Please contact me with your purchase decisions or if a discussion would be helpful. We will be back in touch in a few weeks when the VA study results are available.

On behalf of our team, thanks for your ongoing support! Talk to you soon.

Tim

timothyparis@ruark.co

860.866.7786


Pictures of Super Models

Delighted to contribute this cover article to The Modeling Platform newsletter of the Society of Actuaries Modeling section.

And thanks to those of you who attended my presentation at session 08 of the Life & Annuity Symposium this week, which was in a similar vein.

Please contact me at timothyparis@ruark.co if you would like to learn more about how we use industry-level data and techniques like these to develop a cost-benefit equation for data, and quantifiably improve actuarial models and risk management.


See you at the SOA Life & Annuity Symposium!

I will be speaking at session 08 about policyholder behavior modeling and the risks of over-fitting data.  Hope to see you in sunny Florida!


2019 *NEW* Ruark annuity industry studies

In response to client demand, we would like begin the process of gathering policyholder behavior and mortality data for products beyond VA and FIA, as follows:

  • Post-annuitization deferred annuity mortality, including GMIBs and GLWBs in the payout phase.
  • Immediate annuity mortality.
  • Structured settlement annuity mortality.
  • Fixed deferred annuity surrenders, income utilization, and mortality.
  • Structured/indexed variable annuity surrenders, income utilization, and mortality.

If you have not already received the data request templates, please contact us. We request your data submissions by March 31, 2019. Pending your data submissions and purchase commitments, we will circle back with you to let you know what studies we can proceed with and when.

We look forward to broadening our relationship with you through these additional studies and corresponding behavioral modeling. Please contact Tim (timothyparis@ruark.co) or any of us at Ruark with any questions.


So many presentations in the last few months...

Actuaries' Club of Hartford & Springfield meeting
Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference
SOA Annual Meeting
Valuation Actuary Symposium

Thanks to all of these organizations, and I appreciated the attendee questions and discussions. Each presentation was at least a little different, but this one from the ACHS meeting is representative of the type of insights that our industry experience studies give to our clients, and how we demonstrate the value of our work + industry data in developing customized behavioral models that help insurance companies better manage policyholder behavior and mortality/longevity risks for annuities.

 


SOA and Ruark: predictive analytics video and case study

I appreciate the SOA including me in their case studies of actuaries embracing predictive analytics, and I must give credit to our great team here at Ruark Consulting, our collaborators at the Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut, and our clients.  Here is the video and article.

Those looking for some additional info can find it my article "When is Your Own Data Not Enough?" from The Actuary magazine.