Ruark 2019 top news

  • How much is 1% A/E improvement worth to you? As you can see, we estimate that it can be hundreds of millions or even billions, but we recommend that you do the math for yourself. And yes, this 1%+ is what we can typically do using the data from our VA and FIA industry studies of policyholder behavior (over $1 trillion current account value) in a credibility-based predictive analytics framework. If you are aware of a better cost-benefit anywhere, we'd love to hear about it! We're trying to make it as easy as possible for you to fend off the budget hawks.

 

  • VM-21 exposure draft looks set to raise the bar on policyholder behavior data analysis and modeling assumptions. Fortunately, we've got you covered there too.

 

  • 2019 FIA and VA studies are still available for purchase, along with our most recent (triennial) 2018 mortality studies, if you have not done so already.

Other goodies --

  • Data gathering is in flight for 2020 FIA studies and we will turn to VA data after year-end. And we are working to bring some new data contributors aboard too. If you're not in yet, let's fix that.

 

  • As previously mentioned, we also plan to gather data in H1 2020 for a first ever GMIB post-annuitization mortality study. Longevity anti-selection? Comparisons to GLWBs or SPIAs? We want to know too, and the data is now emerging.

 

  • Looking ahead to 2020, our plans are here.  The industry studies feed into our more customized engagements which range from assumption review to development of predictive models and related assumptions to complete process management.

 

 

Please contact me if you would like to discuss.

 


Ruark: delighted to assist with the SOA Pri-2012 Private Retirement Plans Mortality Tables

While we still love our individual annuity work, we were delighted to assist the SOA in the compilation and processing of pension mortality data for the Pri-2012 mortality tables.

 


How much is 1% A/E improvement worth to you?

Sneak peek from the upcoming SOA Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference.

This is one handy way to quantify the value of our VA and FIA industry policyholder behavior experience studies and predictive analytics capabilities.  Yes, $ millions of risk reduction, since we can typically improve Actual/Expected ratios by more than 1% relative to what companies can do when using only their own data, which makes this endeavor well worthwhile compared to costs.  Again, our work is not an expense, it is an investment in risk management with quantifiable benefits.

Hope to see you in Chicago November 10-12, including the Bridging the Gap seminar on November 10.


Policyholder Behavior is the focus at this SOA seminar

We will have a lot to do there -- 🔥case study on Fixed Indexed Annuity income utilization using credibility theory in a predictive analytics context, a review of policyholder behavior experience data findings across the industry including some newly emerging data and interrelationships in key areas, and much more.

Hope to see you there!  Bridging the Gap seminar on Nov 10, which leads into the Equity-Based Insurance Guarantees Conference Nov 11-12.


Unlocking -- feel like you've done this before?

My fellow actuaries, I think there is a better way.  Let's discuss "How to Get Real Results in Policyholder Behavior Modeling" at session 134 of the SOA Annual Meeting.


Join me at this ACTEX webinar - Data Analysis and Modeling for Long-Term Products

https://actexmadriver.com/orderselection.aspx?id=453145085

In this webinar, we will explore the difficulties of analyzing experience data for long-term products that are early in their lifecycle and translating this data to assumption models. These issues are endemic to any new product line and are evident across many large and important segments of the life and annuity landscape, including post-level term mortality and variable and fixed indexed annuity lifetime income guarantees. As a case study, we will utilize actual industry-level policyholder experience data from the US annuity market to explore the key drivers, interrelationships, and market segments. Following this, we will put ourselves in the position of an actuary working for a company in this market and analyze a company's experience data. Then we will develop and calibrate assumption models to this data, mindful of credibility limitations and risks of over-fitting data. Finally, we will show how relevant external data can be incorporated to refine the model, and how to quantify the cost-benefit of accessing this data and improving a company’s risk management.


Obstacles to annuity reinsurance deals?

I'll be speaking about how to deal with one of the biggies -- policyholder behavior assumptions -- at the 2019 SOA Reinsurance Seminar on Sep 24-25.  Hope to see you there.


The Use of Predictive Analytics to Set Valuation Assumptions

I will be one of the speakers at session 39 of the SOA Valuation Actuary Symposium, which will cover this hot topic for annuities and other product lines.  Hope to see you there.


Super Models - SOA webcast

August 2, 2019

12:00 - 1:30pm Eastern

Register

I will be the presenter at this SOA webcast.  If you like me, Super Models, or continuing education credit, this is the webcast for you!

What is a "super model"? In this context, super models are developed based on rigorous data analytics techniques, and they provide a range of potential outcomes and financial metrics that can be used to evaluate when material changes are necessary. “Assumptions” can be extracted from super models for various applications, but the super model itself is more robust than that. It is a framework for analysis and risk management, not a point-in-time set of numbers.

This session will emphasize data visualization and communication of highly technical concepts to colleagues and non-actuarial stakeholders. There will be examples based on industry-level policyholder behavior data from the U.S. annuity market, but the concepts transcend product lines.