Presentation slides from SOA Life and Annuity Reinsurance Seminar

Thanks to so many of you who attended the SOA Life and Annuity Reinsurance Seminar in NYC a couple of weeks ago. Tim's presentation slides on modeling and managing policyholder behavior risk are here. https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/events/2017/reinsurance-seminar/agenda/


A busy September is coming up. Hope to see you in our travels...

Eric Halpern and Tim Paris will be moderating a few sessions at the SOA's first-ever Predictive Analytics Symposium, and we are delighted to be one of the corporate sponsors for this exciting event.

Tim Paris will be attending the BILTIR Life and Annuity Conference. Keynote speaker is a long-time favorite of our's and many...

Both events are still open for registration.

Date
September 14 - 15, 2017

Location
Swissotel Chicago
Chicago, IL

Date
September 19, 2017

Location
Southampton
Bermuda

 


Organizational news at Ruark

Hi folks, a few quick updates so you are acquainted with who's doing what for you in our shop: * Sally Osit has taken on the new role of Chief Administrative Officer, responsible for centralized functions such as project management, IT, HR, and administration for Ruark's large block of annuity reinsurance treaties. * Eric Halpern has recently joined us as Chief Operating Officer, responsible for leading our consulting operations, with a primary focus on policyholder behavior analytics, including industry- and company-level experience studies, predictive modeling and assumption model development, and related client projects. The rest of our team is still here and as vital as ever, myself hopefully included. Congratulations to Sally and Eric in their new roles. We know that these changes will help us to more efficiently provide the excellent products and services that you have come to know and expect from us. Please feel free to contact any of us with questions. Tim


2017 SOA Valuation Actuary Symposium

ValAct | Ruark | Behavioral Analytics
 
Tim Paris will be speaking at the SOA Valuation Actuary Symposium, session 19, on one of my favorite topics -- Behavioral Analytics for Annuities. This will include a tour of recent policyholder behavior experience across the industry of VA and FIA products, effective use of predictive modeling techniques on this complex data, and sample model output and metrics. See you in TX.
 

SOA Life and Annuity Reinsurance Seminar

Tim Paris will be hosting the SOA Life and Annuity Reinsurance Seminar in NYC on August 14-15. Registration is still open. Hope to see you there!

Location

The Westin New York at Times Square
New York, NY


Ruark Behavioral Analytics Advisory Council - next call June 23 at 2pm Eastern

Our next meeting is coming up soon.

This is by invitation only, so please RSVP if you have not done so already, or contact us if you are interested.  We plan to share 3 key things:

  • Starting the modeling process with relevant industry data, then tailoring to each company, typically leads to better assumption models than what an individual company can do using only its own data. We will demonstrate this with model factor selection, standard error terms for coefficient estimates, and actual-to-expected ratios.
  • Integration of models across behaviors is important. We will demonstrate this by showing the impact of partial withdrawal history on surrender behavior.
  • In collaboration with the UCONN Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, we have developed a very powerful modeling approach for partial withdrawal behavior, particularly for GLWBs and the like, reflecting the impact of partial withdrawal history as well as behavioral variations between large ad hoc withdrawals and true income-related withdrawals. We will outline our process for developing these models and how to tailor them to each company, and share sample output.

Friendly reminder that our 2017 FIA industry studies and spring VA industry studies have been completed and are available for purchase, along with related assumption model development and benchmarking services.  If you are a data-contributing client and know what you would like to purchase, please contact us and we will arrange delivery and discussion. Or if you have any questions that would aid in your decision-making, please let us know. Our 2017 service and pricing summary can be found here.


Our 2017 plans for behavioral analytics

platform_ruarkbg

 

Are your assumptions informed by credible industry experience?

 

checkWe provide a powerful combination of industry- and company-level experience studies, predictive modeling, traditional analytical techniques, and expert judgment, based on seriatim monthly data since 2007, covering approximately 70% of the annuity industry.

Is your analytical framework robust as new data emerges?

checkWe work with you to customize and implement our behavioral analytics framework, with transparent linkage from experience data to assumption models, naturally suited to regular updates for inforce and new business.

Are your analytics granular enough to mitigate anti-selection and proactively manage changes in your business mix?

checkWe address the many factors of influence and their changes over time, including product and guarantee type, surrender charge period and duration, moneyness of guarantees on actuarial and nominal bases, contract size, tax status, age, gender, distribution channel and compensation structures, and income utilization and efficiency.

Is speed important to you?

checkIt is to us too. We provide the timely and immediately actionable results you need to efficiently manage your company’s behavioral risks.

 


We aim to be the platform and industry benchmark for principles-based insurance data analytics and risk management.


 

2017 VA and FIA Behavioral Modules

For each of: Options
VA Surrenders       VA Income Utilization       VA GMIB Annuitization       FIA Surrenders       FIA Income Utilization 1 2 3
Experience Studies – industry results in aggregate, along with your company results, in a detailed report with numerical exhibits covering key factors, cohorts, and dynamics
Customized assumption model – initially calibrated to industry results, and tailored to your company based on credibility techniques
Review of your current assumptions, and comparison to the customized model above
Benchmarking of your results relative to peers
Presentation and discussion with our team
Membership on our Behavioral Analytics Advisory Council

 

va-fia_timeline

 

Would you like to learn more about implementation and pricing?

Contact: 

Timothy Paris
860.866.7786


How well can you model GLWB behavior?

In collaboration with UCONN's Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, we have developed a remarkable approach to modeling policyholder behavior for deferred annuities (particularly GLWB income utilization), with strong goodness of fit to historical data and high predictive power. All of this is fueled by industry-level data, and then tailored to each company using credibility procedures. Actuaries, A/E ratios in the 99-101% range?! Yes, it can be done. Hit us up.


Join us at the 2017 Retirement Industry Conference

Tim Paris will be moderating the session "Leadership Perspectives: Industry Benchmarking, Behavioral Analytics, and Executive Communication". Hope to see you there.

https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/events/2017-retirement-industry-conference/