A busy September is coming up. Hope to see you in our travels...
Eric Halpern and Tim Paris will be moderating a few sessions at the SOA's first-ever Predictive Analytics Symposium, and we are delighted to be one of the corporate sponsors for this exciting event.
Tim Paris will be attending the BILTIR Life and Annuity Conference. Keynote speaker is a long-time favorite of our's and many...
Both events are still open for registration.
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| Date September 14 - 15, 2017 Location |
Date September 19, 2017 Location |
Ruark Behavioral Analytics Advisory Council - next call June 23 at 2pm Eastern
Our next meeting is coming up soon.
This is by invitation only, so please RSVP if you have not done so already, or contact us if you are interested. We plan to share 3 key things:
- Starting the modeling process with relevant industry data, then tailoring to each company, typically leads to better assumption models than what an individual company can do using only its own data. We will demonstrate this with model factor selection, standard error terms for coefficient estimates, and actual-to-expected ratios.
- Integration of models across behaviors is important. We will demonstrate this by showing the impact of partial withdrawal history on surrender behavior.
- In collaboration with the UCONN Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, we have developed a very powerful modeling approach for partial withdrawal behavior, particularly for GLWBs and the like, reflecting the impact of partial withdrawal history as well as behavioral variations between large ad hoc withdrawals and true income-related withdrawals. We will outline our process for developing these models and how to tailor them to each company, and share sample output.
Friendly reminder that our 2017 FIA industry studies and spring VA industry studies have been completed and are available for purchase, along with related assumption model development and benchmarking services. If you are a data-contributing client and know what you would like to purchase, please contact us and we will arrange delivery and discussion. Or if you have any questions that would aid in your decision-making, please let us know. Our 2017 service and pricing summary can be found here.
Our 2017 plans for behavioral analytics
Are your assumptions informed by credible industry experience?
We provide a powerful combination of industry- and company-level experience studies, predictive modeling, traditional analytical techniques, and expert judgment, based on seriatim monthly data since 2007, covering approximately 70% of the annuity industry.
Is your analytical framework robust as new data emerges?
We work with you to customize and implement our behavioral analytics framework, with transparent linkage from experience data to assumption models, naturally suited to regular updates for inforce and new business.
Are your analytics granular enough to mitigate anti-selection and proactively manage changes in your business mix?
We address the many factors of influence and their changes over time, including product and guarantee type, surrender charge period and duration, moneyness of guarantees on actuarial and nominal bases, contract size, tax status, age, gender, distribution channel and compensation structures, and income utilization and efficiency.
Is speed important to you?
It is to us too. We provide the timely and immediately actionable results you need to efficiently manage your company’s behavioral risks.
We aim to be the platform and industry benchmark for principles-based insurance data analytics and risk management.
2017 VA and FIA Behavioral Modules
| For each of: | Options | ||
| VA Surrenders VA Income Utilization VA GMIB Annuitization FIA Surrenders FIA Income Utilization | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Studies – industry results in aggregate, along with your company results, in a detailed report with numerical exhibits covering key factors, cohorts, and dynamics | • | • | • |
| Customized assumption model – initially calibrated to industry results, and tailored to your company based on credibility techniques | ○ | • | • |
| Review of your current assumptions, and comparison to the customized model above | ○ | ○ | • |
| Benchmarking of your results relative to peers | ○ | ○ | • |
| Presentation and discussion with our team | • | • | • |
| Membership on our Behavioral Analytics Advisory Council | • | • | • |
Would you like to learn more about implementation and pricing?
Contact:
Timothy Paris
860.866.7786
Behavioral Analytics for Annuities - Presentation slides from 2017 SOA Life & Annuity Symposium
Behavioral Analytics for Annuities - presentation slides from 2017 SOA Life & Annuity Symposium (session 82). Thanks to those attending...great interactive discussion.
Hope to see you at the 2017 SOA Life & Annuity Symposium
Timothy Paris will be presenting in two sessions.
Session 50: Moving to the C-Suite
Session 82: Behavioral Analytics for Annuities
Join us at the 2017 Retirement Industry Conference
Tim Paris will be moderating the session "Leadership Perspectives: Industry Benchmarking, Behavioral Analytics, and Executive Communication". Hope to see you there.
https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/events/2017-retirement-industry-conference/
Podcast - Growing Your Company’s Predictive Analytics Capabilities.
Steve Wright and Tim Paris participated in this podcast of the Society of Actuaries' Predictive Analytics and Futurism section.
Predictive Analytics Case Study – Growing Your Company’s Capabilities
February 22, 2017
Length: 16:11
Sponsor: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section
Description: Listen in as Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA interviews Timothy Paris, FSA, MAAA and Steve Wright, FSA, MAAA from Ruark Consulting. Tim and Steve have developed predictive analytics expertise at their company over the last few years. They share stories from that journey and some suggested resources for others wanting to do the same.
https://www.soa.org/prof-dev/podcasts/predictive-analytics-podcasts/
http://traffic.libsyn.com/soapodcasts/SOA_17_01_PAF_01_-_Predictive_Analytics_Case_Study.mp3